Research & Analysis
Data-driven insights into Bitcoin's price dynamics
Cycle UpdateBitcoin April 2026: Cycle Analysis Update — Power Law + Halving Phase
Cycle 4 peaked at ~$114K in October 2025 (556 days post-halving). Now at $77,647 and 24 months into the cycle. Here's what the power law and halving data say about where we are and what comes next.
Beginner GuideBitcoin Power Law Model Explained — A Beginner's Guide
What the power law model is, why it fits 96% of Bitcoin's price history, and what a fair value of $143,945 means — no math degree required.
AI ResearchAI Discovers 51% Better Bitcoin Price Model
An autonomous AI ran 328 experiments and improved power law predictions by 51%. The key: mean-reversion with 180-day decay. Here's what we learned and how we're integrating it.
Halving CyclesBitcoin Halving Cycle Explained: When Does Bitcoin Peak?
We analyzed 10+ years of data to find what actually predicts Bitcoin returns. The halving cycle phase explains 28.2% of 90-day return variance—3x more than valuation or Fed policy.
FlowsWhale & Institutional Flows: Who Really Moves Bitcoin?
ETF flows are 12x daily mining supply. Whale wallets at all-time highs. Yet institutions sold $6.18B during the crash. We analyzed flow data vs power law to find what actually drives price.
StatisticsBitcoin 200 MA Analysis: Where Does Price Sit Statistically?
We analyzed 3,895 days of Bitcoin data against the 200 MA. Current position: -22.6% below MA, Z-score -1.0. Only 12.5% of history was worse. Full sigma band breakdown.
Power LawBitcoin's Power Law Model: The Math Behind 96% of Price History
One mathematical model explains 96% of Bitcoin's price variance. R² = 0.9605. Learn how the diminishing sine power law works and what it says about current valuation.
Factor AnalysisFactor Hierarchy: What Actually Moves Bitcoin Price?
We ranked what actually drives Bitcoin price using ANOVA on 941 data points. Halving phase (28.2%) beats valuation (16.9%) beats Fed policy (9.4%). Here's the hierarchy.
ETF AnalysisBitcoin ETF Flows vs. The Halving Cycle: Which Actually Drives Price?
ETFs now buy 12x what miners produce daily. Have they replaced the halving cycle? We tested the claim with 10 years of data. Current reading: BTC at −44% below power law fair value, 735 days post-halving.
Macro AnalysisBitcoin and Global Liquidity: The Macro Force Behind Every Bull Run
US M2 grew 39% in 2020–2021. Bitcoin rose 1,400%. QT hit in 2022 and BTC fell 77%. We break down the macro-liquidity relationship with real data from 2015–2026 and what it means today.
Cycle AnalysisBitcoin Cycle Top Signals: A Data-Driven Framework for Timing the Peak
Historical cycle tops share measurable signatures: days post-halving, MVRV Z-score, Pi Cycle indicator, funding rates, exchange inflows. Here's how the data looks heading into 2026.