Halving Cycles · Power Law Models · Macro Correlation
Support This Creator
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Current Cycle
4
Current Phase
Distribution/Bear
Next Phase Starts
Accumulation
Phase Transition
Oct 19, 2026
📅 234 days until Accumulation phase
• Day 679 of 4 cycle phases
Pre-Halving
Post-Halving Bull
Distribution/Bear
Accumulation
Halving Cycle Overlay — Cycles 2, 3 & 4
Key Findings
4 distinct phases per cycle: Pre-Halving (early bull, -547 to 0 days), Post-Halving Bull (0-547 days), Distribution/Bear (548-913 days), and Accumulation (913+ days)
Diminishing returns: Each cycle shows progressively smaller peak gains — consistent with market maturation and increasing market cap
Current position: Day ~340 of Cycle 4's Post-Halving Bull phase — historically the strongest period for price appreciation
Phase transitions at halving day (0), day 547 (bull→distribution), and day 913 (bear→accumulation) align across all cycles
Best R-Squared
0.961
Fair Value (Dim Sine)
$122,217
Current Deviation
45.1%
Power Law: Log-Log Price vs Days Since Genesis
Key Findings
Power law behavior: Bitcoin price follows log(price) = a + b·log(days) with R² = 0.918 for pure fit, improving to 0.961 with diminishing sine oscillation
3 model variants: Pure power law (a=-41.05, b=6.04, R²=0.918), and diminishing sine (a=-41.05, b=6.04, A0=1.22, R²=0.961) — the dim sine captures cycle amplitude decay
Current undervaluation: Price at $67,071 vs dim sine fair value $122,217 (45.1% deviation) — below the model's central tendency
BTC-M2 Correlation
0.776
Log R-Squared
0.85
Optimal Lead
90 days
M2 Trend
Expanding
Bitcoin Market Cap vs M2 Money Supply (Dual Axis, Log Scale)
Bitcoin Market Cap as % of M2 Money Supply
Rolling 365-Day R-Squared Correlation
Key Findings
M2 leads BTC by ~90 days: Expansions in global money supply precede Bitcoin rallies, providing a macro leading indicator
Correlation strengthens during macro-driven markets (R² peaks above 0.90 in 2020-2021 QE era) and weakens during idiosyncratic events
Current signal: M2 has been expanding since late 2023, supporting continued BTC upside through the current cycle
Regression bands: ±1σ/±2σ bands around the BTC-M2 regression provide dynamic support/resistance levels