Bitcoin Price Roadmap

Model-based fair value targets at each halving cycle milestone, derived from our power law model with R² = 0.9605.

BTC Price
$77,647
April 26, 2026
Power Law Fair Value
$140,594
Diminishing sine model
Current Deviation
-44.8%
Below model fair value
Cycle Phase
Distribution
+737 days post-halving
Model R²
0.9605
Exceptional accuracy
Days to Next Halving
725
~April 20, 2028

Power Law Price Projections (2024–2029)

Diminishing sine model fair value across the current halving cycle and into Cycle 6

Cycle Milestone Targets

Power law fair value at key dates in the current Bitcoin halving cycle (4th halving: April 19, 2024)

Apr 19, 2024
Day 0
4th Halving
Block reward: 6.25 → 3.125 BTC
Accumulation Begins
Dim Sine FV
$52,381
Pure PL: $68,492
Apr 19, 2025
+365 days
Year 1 Post-Halving
Historical: Bitcoin typically up 300%+ by this point
Bull Market
Dim Sine FV
$120,350
Pure PL: $100,755
Oct 18, 2025
+547 days
Bull Peak Zone
Historical transition: bull run → distribution phase
Peak Zone
Dim Sine FV
$142,430
Pure PL: $121,073
Apr 19, 2026
+730 days
Year 2 Post-Halving
Historically: distribution and correction
Distribution
Dim Sine FV
$140,939
Pure PL: $144,847
Apr 26, 2026
+737 days ← TODAY
Current Position
BTC at $77,647 — 44.8% below model fair value
Distribution Phase
Dim Sine FV
$140,594
Actual: $77,647
Oct 19, 2026
+913 days
Distribution → Bear Transition
Historical: bear market onset, deepening correction
Bear Market
Dim Sine FV
$132,333
Pure PL: $172,405
Apr 20, 2027
+1,096 days
Year 3 Post-Halving
Historically: late bear / early accumulation
Accumulation
Dim Sine FV
$136,274
Pure PL: $204,216
Apr 20, 2028
+1,462 days
5th Halving
Block reward: 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC — Cycle 6 begins
New Cycle
Dim Sine FV
$226,360
Pure PL: $282,690
Apr 20, 2029
+1,827 days
Year 1 Post-5th Halving
Next bull cycle based on historical patterns
Bull Market
Dim Sine FV
$390,127
Pure PL: $384,611
About the Model: These targets use the Diminishing Sine Power Law model (R² = 0.9605, fitted on 11+ years of Bitcoin price data across 4 halving cycles). The formula is: ln(price) = a + b·ln(t) + A(t)·sin(2π·t/T + φ), where t is days since genesis (Jan 3, 2009), A(t) decays each cycle to model diminishing volatility. Parameters: a=−38.19, b=5.71, A₀=1.75, period=1,387 days.

Disclaimer: These are model-based estimates, not financial advice. Bitcoin is highly volatile and deviations from the power law model can be large and prolonged. The model describes a long-run trend; short-term prices can deviate significantly. Always do your own research. Explore the full power law dashboard →