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Halving Cycles · Power Law Models · Macro Correlation
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Key Findings

Power Law R² 0.9605 Model explains 96% of price history
Fair Value (Model) ~$144,000 Based on power law + diminishing sine
Current Deviation -54% Below power law fair value
Halving Cycle Day Day 708 Post April 2024 halving

Data updated March 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is analysis, not financial advice.

Blog FAQ
Current Cycle
4
Current Phase
Distribution/Bear
Next Phase Starts
Accumulation
Phase Transition
Oct 19, 2026
📅 234 days until Accumulation phase • Day 679 of 4 cycle phases
Pre-Halving
Post-Halving Bull
Distribution/Bear
Accumulation

Halving Cycle Overlay — Cycles 2, 3 & 4

Key Findings

  • 4 distinct phases per cycle: Pre-Halving (early bull, -547 to 0 days), Post-Halving Bull (0-547 days), Distribution/Bear (548-913 days), and Accumulation (913+ days)
  • Diminishing returns: Each cycle shows progressively smaller peak gains — consistent with market maturation and increasing market cap
  • Current position: Day ~340 of Cycle 4's Post-Halving Bull phase — historically the strongest period for price appreciation
  • Phase transitions at halving day (0), day 547 (bull→distribution), and day 913 (bear→accumulation) align across all cycles
Best R-Squared
0.961
Fair Value (Dim Sine)
$122,217
Current Deviation
45.1%

Power Law: Log-Log Price vs Days Since Genesis

Dim Sine Power Law — Time Series (Log Scale)

TradingView Lightweight Charts · Log price vs calendar date · Rainbow bands: ±3σ · ±2σ · ±1σ · Fair Value

── +3σ Extreme Overbought ── +2σ Overbought ·· +1σ Upper Fair ── Fair Value ·· -1σ Lower Fair ── -2σ Undervalued ── -3σ Extreme Undervalued ── BTC Price

Key Findings

  • Power law behavior: Bitcoin price follows log(price) = a + b·log(days) with R² = 0.918 for pure fit, improving to 0.961 with diminishing sine oscillation
  • 3 model variants: Pure power law (a=-41.05, b=6.04, R²=0.918), and diminishing sine (a=-41.05, b=6.04, A0=1.22, R²=0.961) — the dim sine captures cycle amplitude decay
  • Current undervaluation: Price at $67,071 vs dim sine fair value $122,217 (45.1% deviation) — below the model's central tendency
BTC-M2 Correlation
0.776
Log R-Squared
0.85
Optimal Lead
90 days
M2 Trend
Expanding

Bitcoin Market Cap vs M2 Money Supply (Dual Axis, Log Scale)

Bitcoin Market Cap as % of M2 Money Supply

Rolling 365-Day R-Squared Correlation

Key Findings

  • M2 leads BTC by ~90 days: Expansions in global money supply precede Bitcoin rallies, providing a macro leading indicator
  • Correlation strengthens during macro-driven markets (R² peaks above 0.90 in 2020-2021 QE era) and weakens during idiosyncratic events
  • Current signal: M2 has been expanding since late 2023, supporting continued BTC upside through the current cycle
  • Regression bands: ±1σ/±2σ bands around the BTC-M2 regression provide dynamic support/resistance levels

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